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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

The "VIX" is in



Ever seen something like that before? That's the VIX 5 minute chart. The super-stick down is 11:45 a.m. today and the super-stick up is 12:30 p.m. today. If I were a conspiracy theorist, I'd have something to say about that.


The VIX broke support today and made a new low. The last time we closed lower than this was November 5th. I'm almost bullish short to intermediate term. The S&P futures had another inside day, albeit by the thinnist of margins - we tied yesterday's low and came up short of yesterday's high by 7.5 points. We did close 7.75 above yesterday's close. Smaller trading range means narrowing pivots: R2 919.75, R1 907, P 895.75, S1 883, S2 871.75. Perhaps third time is a charm if we get to the low of the last two days - 884.50. Volume has been on the decline the last several sessions. If we don't get up to 912, then we've got to retest the low of 884.50. I still think it is more likely that we break down to the 860 range this week than that we break up above 920. Oil has had a nice two-day run and it has to peter out at some point.
The spring is really coiling in this week's range.
Joe

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