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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Nightly update

After that DIG short idea, I'm surprised you are back. Shoot, I'm surprised I have the will to write. Helps me think though.

The S&P Futures is running along the path I talked about Sunday night. We're pretty committed to 948 or so as a target. Tomorrow, there should be a pull-back to test 895, and that would be a good time to go long. If we get below 895 and bounce off the 882 range, then go long on the way back up past 895. 882 is Support 1. Could be interesting, since there is a lot of room between 950 and 1005 with little resistance.

If we backtest for several days, adjust that 895 number down by 3 each day. But I'm pretty confident now that we've broken out of the triangle it's only a matter of time before we break to the upside, and the chart says that that should happen on Wednesday or Thursday.

If you want to trade this on the SSO, the short-term target is $29 (one to several days from Tuesday's open). Entry on a pull-back to $25.80 is good. Stop at $25. Upside $3.20, downside $0.80, that's 4 to 1. If we break through the resistance at $27.58, $34 is the next target. Do not enter the trade if the 20EMA on the 60-min chart falls below the 50EMA. Exit the trade if they cross as well.

Joe

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