Getting real close to mid-term bullish

There was something about the market today that felt like a slow drip. At the same time, it also felt like when the dripping stopped, the budget would finally be out of water. I went double-long the S&P a couple of times expecting this run-up to occur, but I just couldn't catch it. Instead, I bailed on almost all my shorts and all of my puts. I'm officially mid-term neutral going mid-term bullish soon.

If not today, then within 1 day to a few weeks we'll have put in the mid-term bottom, and I want to get positioned to ride it up for a while. My guess is that the congressional hearing on mark-to-market on March 12 and the completion of the charade known as the stress tests in mid/late March will bring some money back into the market. I think we'll enjoy a nice rally until maybe September or longer. Eventually, some bank will blow-up and the whole house of cards will come down, and that is when we'll start a new vicious leg down in the market. But there's 25-40% upside from here before that happens.

I am double-short silver in the ETF "ZSL." The metals have topped and it won't matter if you play the miners or the metals, they are going down bigtime. I'd expect 35% pullbacks on gold to under $700 and an even greater pullback in silver. This plays nicely with the bank house of cards scenario - folks will get confident in the banks, that will put downward pressure on the metals, and then the actual house of cards falling will take everyone by surprise. That will cause a swift swing out of the markets and into gold & silver.

Not sure if today was the day, but we should at least have a few/several day countertrend rally.

Joe