If this isn't the top of the bear market rally, it is getting close

It's been a while, but I've been watching a few things and feel like I had better lock in a position here and now. Besides being emboldened by a bad week in the markets, take a look at the following charts and let's see if they play out as I'm expecting them to. Oh, and one reason to think that this is the top is simply because I'm posting to this blog!

1. Nasdaq sentiment is outta-sight high. It got this high 3-4 months before the 1999 top, providing an early warning, although the rise from there before the crash was a parabolic 66%. It also got there in 2003, and that didn't signal too much in the way of a top. However, this time, it is over 90% for an extended period. See Chart.

2. The VIX has found some support at the current levels. This chart suggests to me that maybe there is one more bounce (of a week to several week duration) before we put in the top of this bear market rally, but I can live with being wrong about that one. Having said that, I'll be watching to see if the VIX shoots over the bollinger band and try to scalp some calls for the peak run. See Chart.

3. Weakening accumulation followed by strengthening distribution. We have the weakening accumulation already, but a pop to new highs on less accumulation would signal a top to me. See Chart.

Joe